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Starship expected to approach or beat $200-300/kg cost threshold within 3-5 years, unlocking space-based data center economics
Will Marshall· Planet Labs· Space· 2026-05-19· about SpaceX (PRIVATE)
“Starship promises to get us close to that zone, if not better. When do we expect Starship? The cadence necessary for this, I'm guessing for five years, something like that. Three, five years might be good bounding conditions.”
Why it matters
Starship's cost reduction roadmap is the primary gating factor for commercial space-based compute viability. Delays or cost overruns directly postpone the entire market shift.
Investment implication
Companies dependent on Starship (satellite operators, space tech startups, propellant suppliers) face execution risk. Alternative launch providers (Rocket Lab, Relativity, Axiom) could capture market share if Starship faces delays.