infrastructureScore 80/100Research
Will Marshall: Space-based data centers become cost-competitive within 2-3 years as launch costs decline to $200-300/kg (currently ~$1,000/kg)
Will Marshall· Planet Labs· Space· 2026-07-19· about Planet Labs, SpaceX, Google (PL, GOOGL)
“When launch costs come down to about $200 to $300 a kilogram, um uh it would be cheaper, just simply cheaper to put the data centers in space. Now we're about $1,000 a kilogram, just over that in right today. Uh but that's come down about 10x in the last 10 years. Um on the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it the launch cost come down there in 2 to 3 years.”
Why it matters
Launch cost reduction is the critical gate for space-based compute economics. When this threshold is breached, it unlocks a multi-trillion dollar market shift in data center infrastructure location and operation.
Investment implication
Companies positioned to benefit from lower launch costs (SpaceX, relativity Space, Axiom Space, etc.) and space-qualified compute suppliers (NVIDIA, Google TPU, custom chipmakers) stand to capture significant value. Terrestrial data center operators may face margin pressure.