technologyScore 65/100Research
Musk: Optimus labor+materials COGS to fall to $20-30K at ~1M units/year production, a year after hitting that rate
“I would expect the labor and materials to be $20 to $30,000 in current year dollars... after we reach a million units of steady state production. So, call it a year after reaching a million units a year.”
Why it matters
A first-party cost target with specific figures and timeline for humanoid production at million-unit scale — a key anchor for sizing the economics of the humanoid robot market and Tesla's Optimus margin potential.
Investment implication
If credible, implies a sub-$30K humanoid enabling mass-market adoption; supports bullish thesis on Tesla's Optimus optionality and on the broader humanoid supply chain (actuators, gears, motors) scaling to automotive-like volumes.