capexScore 80/100Research
Marvell custom silicon business (XPU and attached products) to double YoY in FY2028 from >$1.5B FY2026 base; CPO from Celestial AI acquisition targeting $500M run-rate by Q4 FY2028, doubling to $1B by Q4 FY2029
Matt Murphy· Marvell Technology· AI· 2026-05-22· about Marvell Technology; Celestial AI (acquired); XCON (acquired) (MRVL)
“Marll's engineering and operations teams are fully engaged in bringing Celestial's first generation chiplet into high volume manufacturing. We remain on track for our forecast for our CPO revenue from Celestial to reach a $500 million annualized run rate in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2028, doubling to a $1 billion annualized run rate by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2029... custom revenue to at least double year-over-year from three primary drivers... we have line of sight to revenue exceeding $2 billion by fiscal 2029 from just these two use cases [custom NICK and CXL applications]”
Why it matters
Marvell acquired Celestial AI for silicon photonics (CPO) and XCON for PCIe/CXL switching to address the scale-up interconnect market, which Marvell estimates could exceed $10B by 2030. This signals consolidation of photonics/advanced switching as critical to hyperscaler custom infrastructure.
Investment implication
Significant capex acceleration expected for advanced packaging (co-packaged optics), photonic chiplet integration, high-speed test/assembly capabilities, and 2nm/3nm process capacity. Supply chain for optical components, advanced substrates, and chiplet interconnect materials will face tight capacity. Marvell's ability to execute ramp hinges on manufacturing partners' capacity.